NFL Draft order 2024 projections: Three-team race for No. 1; Bengals fall
How did Week 12 of the NFL schedule shake up the possible 2024 NFL Draft order?
To get an update on where things stand, we turn to Austin Mock’s projections. Mock projects the score for every game and the final winning percentage for every team using his NFL betting model. The model phases out older data and uses data from this year as the season progresses. The simulation then runs 100,000 times after each day of games to give us, in this case, our projected top-10 draft order, plus each team’s projected win total and playoff chances.
Projected top 10 (as of Nov. 28)
A few thoughts on this week’s projections:
1. We’re back to a three-team race
It was getting a little crowded at the top for a bit there, as the Cardinals, Bears, Giants and Patriots all slumped right along with the Panthers (who, again, will be sending their first-round pick to Chicago this year). But with Monday night’s comically awful 12-10 win in Minnesota, the Bears now have taken two of three (and probably should be riding a three-game winning streak), while the Fighting Tommy DeVitos — projected to land the No. 1 pick just two weeks ago — are on a two-game run.
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Those results have both the Bears and Giants sitting on four wins. Even after firing Frank Reich and multiple other coaches, the Panthers aren’t about to get hot enough to threaten that total — they’re 1-10 and likely won’t be favored in any game the rest of the way.
The three teams that still appear to have a shot at No. 1: Carolina (so, Chicago), Arizona and New England. As things stand, Carolina has the lowest strength of schedule, followed by New England — that’s the first tiebreaker for any draft slots.
2. Which NFC North team wants to join the playoff party?
Speaking of the Bears’ moderate surge, the NFC’s uninspiring wild-card race — and the 14-team playoff bracket — has a lot of bubble teams dreaming of some late-season magic. Chicago’s playoff chances (2.2 percent) still have a ways to go, although that’s a rise from 1.0 percent last week. But division rivals Minnesota (50.7 percent) and Green Bay (52.7 percent) sit in the seventh and eighth NFC spots, respectively.
You’ll notice there that the Packers’ odds actually have leapfrogged the Vikings’, a twist brought on by Green Bay’s Thanksgiving upset of Detroit and Minnesota’s aforementioned Monday night stumble. (The latter kept the Lions’ NFC North shot at a healthy 91.4 percent, despite their holiday letdown.)
Teams like the Rams (25.3 percent playoff shot) and the NFC South runner-up (Atlanta is now the projected winner of that division) still will have a say in the wild-card race. Increasingly, though, it’s looking like the North will claim a second berth — and maybe even a third, if Seattle (8.8 projected wins, 53.3 percent playoff chance) slides.
GO DEEPER
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3. Trade rumors are going to be fun
Should it land the No. 1 pick (via Carolina), would Chicago lock in on QBs Caleb Williams and Drake Maye or talk itself into Justin Fields’ development? In that second scenario, the Bears might shift to a Marvin Harrison Jr.-vs.-trade down debate — the Patriots and several teams picking behind them could be interested in that top spot.
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Even if the Bears just stay put and pick Williams/Maye, the Cardinals’ projected selection at No. 2 would become a hot commodity, primarily for teams wanting to jump Bill Belichick for a shot at QB2. And then what happens with Harrison? Or QB3? Or ultra-talented offensive tackles like Joe Alt and Olu Fashanu?
There were some wild draft trades last year, and we might have a repeat performance in 2024.
4. Welcome to the top 10 …
… Cincinnati. Oof. A team coming off back-to-back AFC title game appearances (and a heartbreaking Super Bowl LVI loss) is staring down a last-place finish in the AFC North, with star QB Joe Burrow done for the season. Mock’s latest projections have the Bengals at just 6.7 wins — they’re already sitting on five victories — and a 0.4 percent playoff chance. It doesn’t help that every other team in the division currently holds playoff positioning, including Baltimore atop the entire AFC at 9-3.
A top-10 pick (and a healthy Burrow) definitely could help Cincinnati orchestrate a quick turnaround in 2024, though.
5. Just missing the cut
No. 11 in this week’s projections, in case you’re wondering: Tampa Bay (7.0 projected wins, 19.8 percent playoff chance — fueled almost entirely by the NFC South’s mediocrity). The Chargers, Rams, Saints and Vikings round out the top 15, although there’s a very thin margin between teams 12-18.
The team that seems to be most stuck in no man’s land right now is Buffalo, which dropped to 6-6 with a Sunday night overtime loss to Philadelphia. The Bills still have to play at Kansas City and Miami, and they’ve also got a home game with Dallas. Mock’s model has them at 8.6 projected wins, which feels about right — it’ll take some work to get to 3-2 or better down the stretch, and it’s certainly not unimaginable that they’ll finish at 7-10.
(Photo of Caleb Williams: Gina Ferazzi / Los Angeles Times via Getty Images)
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