Notre Dame football midseason report: Who are the Irish six games into 2023?

Publish date: 2024-05-23

SOUTH BEND, Ind. — Notre Dame couldn’t come up for air this week, even if it needed some at the season’s midway point. Instead, the Fighting Irish are in the midst of four consecutive night games, all against ranked opponents. The back-to-back-to-back-to-back primetime kickoffs are a first around here, even for a program used to playing under the lights. And the string of four ranked opponents is a first for Notre Dame in 23 years and something only two other programs are positioned to do this season, according to the current AP Poll.

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And yet, for all of the novelty in Notre Dame’s second season under Marcus Freeman, the results have been mildly predictable, even if they’ve been injected with drama. To say Notre Dame has won all of the games it was supposed to win lacks context. To say the Irish lost the one game in which they were underdogs misses the mood swings of that result.

“Yeah, I expected us to do well against whoever we face,” linebacker Marist Liufau said. “I think we’re going in the right direction. There’s so much we can learn from knowing we still haven’t, like coach says always, reached our full potential.”

Heading toward No. 25 Louisville on Saturday night with No. 9 USC on the horizon, what constitutes “full potential” might feel a bit different today after watching how Notre Dame got to 5-1. The record might be expected, but Notre Dame has been full of surprises while capturing the imagination of the fan base.

The Irish have already played three games that drew at least 3.5 million viewers after hitting that number just twice last season. It wouldn’t be a shock if Notre Dame topped that audience on Saturday night. USC will be a lock for a big number, too, probably in excess of last season’s 6.68 million as Caleb Williams won the Heisman Trophy. And the Clemson game should go over last year’s figure (3.22 million ), even if it’s played in the same window as USC-Washington or AlabamaLSU.

So, who is Notre Dame at midseason?

And how does the reality of this team differ from preseason prognostications? These five keys could determine whether Notre Dame makes a legitimate push for the College Football Playoff or falls just short.

1. Pass rush exceeding expectations

Freeman gets questions about the pass rush twice weekly. At first glance, there’s good reason for that. Notre Dame has just nine sacks through six games, which puts Al Golden’s defense on pace to basically halve last year’s sack total of 38. And yet, the pressure Notre Dame applies on quarterbacks is much improved from last season. According to Tru Media, Notre Dame’s pressure rate of 44.8 percent ranks third nationally. Its pressure rate on blitzes hits at 56.2 percent, which ranks 10th.

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Opponents have a pass efficiency rating of just 71.4 when Notre Dame blitzes — 25-of-64 for 294 yards and two interceptions — giving the Irish the second-best blitz pass efficiency rating in the country. That backs up an overall opponent passer rating that ranks third nationally. Only Ohio State, Penn State, Michigan and North Carolina have given up fewer touchdown passes than Notre Dame (three).

Does Notre Dame blitz its linebackers often? Yes. That’s the tradeoff with a defensive line that lacks an Isaiah Foskey, who hit double-digit sacks on his own. But Notre Dame’s pass rush isn’t just coverage sacks or feasting on poor offensive line play. The Irish have been getting to the quarterback. Riley Leonard’s first interception of the season came when Notre Dame got in the Duke quarterback’s face. Xavier Watts made the pick, but Howard Cross and Rylie Mills got the pressure to help make it happen.

Most, including the head coach, expected Notre Dame to have pass-rush issues this season. It hasn’t worked out that way as Cross and Javontae Jean-Baptiste have exceeded expectations. A defensive line group that felt like a collection of above-average players has developed into something much more.

2. Sam Hartman is a deep-ball dynamo — he needs help

Why has Notre Dame’s offense bogged down the past two games, aside from the fact it’s faced top-10 defenses in yards per play allowed and 20-yard pass plays surrendered? It’s at least in part because Sam Hartman hasn’t pushed the ball vertically enough, although Notre Dame’s threadbare receiver group might have something to do with that.

Against Navy, Tennessee State, NC State and Central Michigan, Hartman went 9-of-12 for 374 yards and six touchdowns on throws of more than 20 yards in the air. Against Ohio State and Duke, that figure dropped to 1-of-7 for 28 yards. The sum of that yardage came on Hartman’s pass to Mitchell Evans on the second play of Notre Dame’s first drive at Duke.

MITCHAPALOOZA#GoIrish☘️ pic.twitter.com/5Q3XUmahHX

— Notre Dame Football (@NDFootball) October 5, 2023

How much do the struggles of Notre Dame’s deep pass game come back to the receivers? How much is it just a nod to Ohio State and Duke? Jayden Thomas and Jaden Greathouse returning to full health should help. So will the fact that Louisville and USC have given up a total of 42 completions of 20 yards this season compared to 16 combined by Ohio State and Duke.

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Notre Dame’s receiver group felt like it might put a ceiling on the Irish offense due to poor recruiting and roster imbalances. And unfortunately for Hartman, those predictions have proven accurate. As much as Hartman has found a connection with the tight ends, backs and slot receivers, the outside receivers have been unreliable. The catch percentage (receptions divided by targets) of Chris Tyree, Greathouse, Evans and Holden Staes are all above 80 percent.

Thomas is 61.9 percent, Rico Flores is 52.4 percent and Tobias Merriweather is 47.1 percent. Notre Dame needs more from those three in the season’s second half.

3. Pass protection is suspect

The Irish have allowed just six sacks through six games, four against NC State and two at Duke last weekend. But the pass protection — from the offensive line, tight ends and running backs — isn’t operating at a high level. And the quarterback has felt that, whether it was the twisted knee against Central Michigan or the exotic blitzes at Duke that nearly won the game for Mike Elko.

Per Tru Media, Notre Dame has allowed pressure on 30.5 percent of dropbacks, which ranks No. 65 nationally. Against Duke, that figure ballooned to 44.4 percent of Hartman’s dropbacks coming under pressure, even if he was sacked just twice. During the game-winning drive at Duke, he was under pressure due to blown assignments or physical beats up front. The Irish can’t afford that during the final six games, both to keep Hartman healthy and to get the offense back to its early-September form.

For a line that was supposed to have two NFL tackles and a wealth of talent on the interior, the front has yet to round into form. It would be ideal if that moment arrived this weekend after the struggles at Duke. If the Ohio State performance was the best of Notre Dame’s offensive line, that must be repeated.

4. Are the Irish a good tackling team?

Notre Dame ranks in the top 10 in yards per play allowed, opponent passer rating and red zone touchdown percentage defense. It ranks No. 14 in scoring defense. But for all the good in Golden’s scheme, and there’s a lot of that, Notre Dame’s inability to consistently tackle reads like an area of necessary improvement.

Per PFF, Notre Dame has five defensive starters averaging at least a 20 percent missed tackle rate — Xavier Watts, JD Bertrand, Marist Liufau, Cam Hart and Benjamin Morrison.

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“I think we’re getting better,” Golden said. “I think we have a collective mentality. Look, I think you guys know me well enough by now. I’m not really into the stats. I think there’s some critical stuff — like, you guys mentioned, tackling and turnovers. Those are critical stats. Third down, red zone — critical stats. Scoring defense — critical stat. There’s a lot of other categories that you can chase, as a coach or a coordinator, that can lead you down a bad path. “

If Notre Dame does reach its full potential on defense, better tackling might be the reason why.

5. Run game a mixed bag (which can be good)

The good: Notre Dame is averaging 5.49 yards per carry, which ranks 15th nationally. The Irish rushed for 176 yards against Ohio State two weeks ago. The “five-headed monster” might be overdone, but Audric Estime and Jeremiyah Love form a high-level lead duo.

The bad: Notre Dame’s rushing efficiency has dropped against all three Power 5 opponents, bottoming out against Duke. The Irish aren’t a good short-yardage run team, converting 11-of-18 third or fourth downs on the ground when needing 2 yards or less. The two quarterback sneaks that got stuffed by Ohio State changed the season’s arc.

What is the Irish run game? There are a lot of pulling guards and inside runs, although Duke had little issue shutting down both. The Irish didn’t have a double-digit rush (excluding the fake punt) against the Blue Devils until Estime’s 30-yard touchdown. Twelve carries got stuffed for 2 yards or less.

“The schemes we had to use for how they were attacking us was pivotal in that, good and bad,” offensive coordinator Gerad Parker said. “We had to be downhill to stay efficient and try to get the ball back through the line of scrimmage because of how they were attacking us edge-wise.”

Now Parker needs a counter punch in the run game. Is less Estime the move despite the fact he’s in the top 10 nationally in rushing yardage per game and averaging 7.1 yards per carry? That might mean more of Love, whose quickness is undeniable and separates him from Notre Dame’s other backs.

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Regardless, Notre Dame’s run game needs a second act in the season’s back half.

(Photo of Audric Estime: David Jensen / Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)

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